Polls: Race Remains Tight as Parties Approach the Finish Line

March 31 was the last day that Hungarian newspapers and periodicals were permitted to publish the results of opinion polls regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections. According to Hungary's electoral laws, poll results cannot be published during the last 8 days of the campaign. This poses a major problem for polling firms, as they will not be able to determine if voting preferences shift during the last--and most intensive--week of the campaign. Two party leaders debates will be held during the last week, along with Fidesz and Socialist (MSZP) campaign rallies in Budapest on April 1 and April 2.

Most polls indicate a tight race between Fidesz and the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP). Nevertheless, the majority of firms also assert that the Socialists may well be headed for a victory and a historic second mandate, especially if their junior coalition partner--the liberal SZDSZ--is able to muster at least 5% support on election day.

Here are the latest results from each firm:

Szonda-Ipsos

MSZP: 44% - 46%
Fidesz-KDNP: 42% - 44%
SZDSZ: 4% - 5%
MDF: 3%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 3%

Tárki

MSZP: 43% - 46%
Fidesz-KDNP: 39% - 43%
SZDSZ: 5% - 6%
MDF: 3% - 4%

Medián:

MSZP: 44%
Fidesz-KDNP: 44%
SZDSZ: 5%
MDF: 3%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 2%

Gallup:

Fidesz-KDNP: 46%
MSZP: 43%
SZDSZ: 5%
MDF: 3%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 2%
Munkáspárt: 1%
Centrum Párt 1%

Capital Research:

MSZP: 45%
Fidesz-KDNP: 41%
SZDSZ: 6%
MDF: 6%

Marketing Centrum:

MSZP: 44%
Fidesz-KDNP: 43%
SZDSZ: 5%
MDF: 4%

REAL-PR 93:

Fidesz: 45.5%
MSZP: 40.2%
SZDSZ: 4.6%
MDF: 2.9%
Other: 6.8%

Fidesz and Socialists Still Tied: Gallup

The centre-right Fidesz-Christian Democratic People's Party alliance (Fidesz-KDNP) is still tied with the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) according to the latest poll results released by Gallup Hungary. According to the numbers, Fidesz has a 2% lead over the MSZP, meaning that the two parties are still stuck in a statistical dead heat. Of the smaller parties, only the liberal, left-leaning Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) has a chance of returning to parliament. The latest Gallup poll indicates that Hungary will have only two parties left in the parliament after the vote.

The Results:

Fidesz-KDNP: 32
MSZP: 30
SZDSZ: 4%
MDF: 2%
MIÉP-JOBBIK: 1%
Undecided: 16%
Would not vote: 13%

Fidesz and Socialists both Plan Mass Rally for April 2

The Fidesz - Christian Democratic People's Party alliance (Fidesz-KDNP) and the governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) both plan to hold mass rallies in downtown Budapest on Sunday, April 2. Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány announced his intention to hold a rally on Andrassy Boulevard and on Heroes Square with all those who are "worried about the fate of the republic." The next day at the Fidesz party congress Viktor Orbán, the centre-right alliance's candidate for the prime ministership, announced that he too will hold a mass rally on Kossuth Square, right in front of the parliament. Mr. Orbán invites all those who "want to live in Hungary without fear. Everyone should be there with us on April 2, so that we can stand up for peace, understanding and good will."

According to Prime Minister Gyurcsány, however, the Hungarian republic needs protecting from anti-republican right-wing forces. "I invite all friends of the republic--be they left-wing or other--who agree on one thing: it is up to the left to protect the republic, democracy, the rule of law, freedom, honesty and integrity."

Ibolya Dávid and the MDF want in

Ibolya Dávid, leader of the small 'c' conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (Magyar Demokrata Fórum - MDF), indicated in no uncertain terms that she expects to be allowed to take part in the leaders debate scheduled for April 5th. The scheduled debate is meant to be between the two main contenders for the prime ministership, namely Ferenc Gyurcsány--Hungary's current Socialist head of government--and Viktor Orbán, leader of the centre-right Fidesz alliance. But in a press release posted on their website, the MDF noted that if the April 5th debate is to be for prime ministerial contenders, then Ms. Dávid has a rightful place at the table. The small conservative party demands that Mr. Gyurcsány and Mr. Orbán confirm whether the planned debate is for prime ministerial candidates, or if it is "simply an exchange between left-wing politicians." If the debate is the latter, then the MDF, "representing the Hungarian middle-class, will naturally leave the two socialist politicians alone."

Latest Poll Forecasts a Three Party Parliament

A poll conducted by Marketing Centrum and published in HVG, a weekly political magazine, predicts that Hungarian voters will send three parties to Hungary's parliament and that the election will produce a government with a rasor-thin majority in the house. According to the poll's findings, the election is still too close to call, but it does appear as though the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)--a small liberal party and the junior coalition partner in the current Socialist government--will garner enough votes to pass the 5% threshold of parliamentary representation. If the SZDSZ is successful in returning to parliament and if the conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) fails to send MPs to the house in order to help bolster a possible centre-right Fidesz government, there is a greater chance that Hungary's current left-of-centre MSZP-SZDSZ government will win a second term in office.

Marketing Centrum Results*:

Fidesz - KDNP (Fidesz - Christian Democratic People's Party): 44%
MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party): 41%
SZDSZ (Alliance of Free Democrats): 6%
MDF (Hungarian Democratic Forum): 4%
Other Parties (Combined): 5%

*The results are based on the preferences of decided voters.

MDF: it's a Fight Against two Socialist Parties

The parliament's smallest opposition party, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (Magyar Demokrata Fórum - MDF) sees itself in a fight against not one, but two socialist parties--namely the governing Socialists (MSZP) and Fidesz, the right-wing, etatist opposition party. Ibolya Dávid, MDF party president, and Károly Herényi, the party's campaign chair, both indicated that in their eyes Fidesz is simply another socialist party, due to its state-centered, big-government and populist approach in politics. According to Mr. Herényi, the two major parties share the same left-wing attitudes, so it is "almost irrelevant which of them actually ends up winning the election." Ms. Dávid also had some sharp words to say about Viktor Orbán's party. "Fidesz has changed. It now plays on Kádárist nostalgia and has enriched itself with left-wing, Kadarist values, but has become all the poorer in its morals."

The MDF defines itself as Hungary's only small 'c' conservative party and, indeed, its politics of less state intervention, smaller government, a greater role for the private sector, as well as its moderate social conservatism align it closely with most centre-right parties of the western world.

Ms. Dávid's words and her party's campaign event was over-shadowed by a recent scandal in which Zoltán Bagó, a Fidesz candidate, threatened István Romsics, the MDF candidate in the same riding, in an effort to make the latter bow out of the race. Mr. Romsics recorded his conversation with Mr. Bagó, which included an ominous comment--should Fidesz win the election, Mr. Romsics may well lose his job if he decides to remain in the race. Once the scandal broke, Fidesz immediately withdrew Mr. Bagó's candidature and also suspended his party membership. Additionally, Mr. Orbán, Fidesz party president and main contender for the prime ministership, apologized to Ms. Dávid and the MDF on behalf of his party. Ms. Dávid, however, appears to have taken Mr. Orbán's apology with a grain of salt, noting that this was not an isolated incident, but just one of many scare tactics employed by Fidesz candidates against MDF opponents.

It remains to be seen if the MDF will be able to obtain the necessary 5% of the popular vote in order to return to parliament after April 9. Most opinion polls place the party's current level of support at around 3-4%.